Forums > Social Discussion > Energy calculations (and peak oil) doomsday discussion thread
Login/Join to Participatejourneyman
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
Posted:
As prommised under "hydrogen Powered Cars" Ive starded a new thread for energy calculations, etc.
Some quick calculations to consider THERE ARE 2 ERRORS HERE the Earth's radius is 6.36*10^6m and I forgot to convert 1KW into 1000W SO THE FOLLOWING IS NOT CORRECT see post 4 on this thread for the correct calculations and remember that doing sums when tired is not a good idea.
Radius of Earth = 3.37 * 10^6 M, Therefore area of Eath cut down the centre and stuck in the sun = 3.57*10^13 M2
Area of Earth * solar intensity( 1kw per m2) *24Hr * 3600 seconds per hour = 3.08*10^18 Joules per day.
Assuming 2% of this energy is converted to biomass and 1/3 of the Earth is not under water , Thats 1.85 * 10^17 joules to play with.
Thats about 31 MJ per person per day. CORRECTION ITS ACTUALLY 12238MJ
One value Ive recently heard for the energy practically able to be harnessed from a litre of hydrocabon fuel, (9.1 kilowatt hours ), equates to about 33 MJ.
SEE FURTHER DOWN FOR CORRECTED SUMS ,Ive left this up to make it easier to spot were the errors were and I'll remove it in a few days time.
Now you see the problem with biofuel, hydrogen from solar, etc, THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH ENERGY COMMING IN TO REPLACE WHAT WE USE. The only option is to live within our means.
For even more bad news on how soon that time will come, look up stuff on "peak oil" and dispare if your satisfaction comes from anything reliant on fossil fuels.
EDITED_BY: The_Magnesium_Master (1131569533)
As prommised under "hydrogen Powered Cars" Ive starded a new thread for energy calculations, etc.
Some quick calculations to consider THERE ARE 2 ERRORS HERE the Earth's radius is 6.36*10^6m and I forgot to convert 1KW into 1000W SO THE FOLLOWING IS NOT CORRECT see post 4 on this thread for the correct calculations and remember that doing sums when tired is not a good idea.
Radius of Earth = 3.37 * 10^6 M, Therefore area of Eath cut down the centre and stuck in the sun = 3.57*10^13 M2
Area of Earth * solar intensity( 1kw per m2) *24Hr * 3600 seconds per hour = 3.08*10^18 Joules per day.
Assuming 2% of this energy is converted to biomass and 1/3 of the Earth is not under water , Thats 1.85 * 10^17 joules to play with.
Thats about 31 MJ per person per day. CORRECTION ITS ACTUALLY 12238MJ
One value Ive recently heard for the energy practically able to be harnessed from a litre of hydrocabon fuel, (9.1 kilowatt hours ), equates to about 33 MJ.
SEE FURTHER DOWN FOR CORRECTED SUMS ,Ive left this up to make it easier to spot were the errors were and I'll remove it in a few days time.
Now you see the problem with biofuel, hydrogen from solar, etc, THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH ENERGY COMMING IN TO REPLACE WHAT WE USE. The only option is to live within our means.
For even more bad news on how soon that time will come, look up stuff on "peak oil" and dispare if your satisfaction comes from anything reliant on fossil fuels.
EDITED_BY: The_Magnesium_Master (1131569533)
BRONZE Member
Carpal \'Tunnel
3,009 posts
Location: Bristol, UK
Carpal \'Tunnel
3,009 posts
Location: Bristol, UK
Posted:
That can't be a right calculation. You can't base the figuures assuming the light landing on the earth is a flat circle the diameter of the earth - the earth is a sphere, and covered with refracting/reflecting atmosphere.
There's a cure little diagram with numbers on this here page.
However you look at energy use it's frighteningly obvious we need to consume much, much less energy and cut down soon and hope the billions in the developing world don't all buy cars soon. This shift isn't really happening and so we're doomed. I have visions of a dark age era where people sift through generations of garbage for scraps of plastics and metal.
That can't be a right calculation. You can't base the figuures assuming the light landing on the earth is a flat circle the diameter of the earth - the earth is a sphere, and covered with refracting/reflecting atmosphere.
There's a cure little diagram with numbers on this here page.
However you look at energy use it's frighteningly obvious we need to consume much, much less energy and cut down soon and hope the billions in the developing world don't all buy cars soon. This shift isn't really happening and so we're doomed. I have visions of a dark age era where people sift through generations of garbage for scraps of plastics and metal.
SILVER Member
addict
546 posts
Location: Leeds, United Kingdom
addict
546 posts
Location: Leeds, United Kingdom
Posted:
as on the h-car:
https://www.bnp.org.uk/peakoil/resources.htm
been looking into this peak oil and found this site by the bnp(i didnt vote for the its just a good site for peak oil info) thought other would like to read thought this...
mike.c
as on the h-car:
https://www.bnp.org.uk/peakoil/resources.htm
been looking into this peak oil and found this site by the bnp(i didnt vote for the its just a good site for peak oil info) thought other would like to read thought this...
mike.c
Rules and responsibities:
These are the ties that bind us.
We do what we do,because of who we are.
If we did otherwise,we would not be ourselves.
I will do what i have to do
And i will do what i must..
SILVER Member
coming to a country near you
4,696 posts
Location: home of the tiney toothy bear, Australia
coming to a country near you
4,696 posts
Location: home of the tiney toothy bear, Australia
Posted:
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM be upon you!
mainly because we want to maintain what we have instead of having what we need.
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM be upon you!
mainly because we want to maintain what we have instead of having what we need.
"but have you considered there is more to life than your eyelids?"
jointly owned by Fire_Spinning_Angel and Blu_Valley
SILVER Member
what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
4,030 posts
Location: Bali, Australia
what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
4,030 posts
Location: Bali, Australia
Posted:
I was given a very simple to watch and yet hard hitting DVD called End of Suburbia. It's available from www.endofsuburbia.com
Although made and aimed at the USA, it is also totally relevant to Australia. One of the things it points out is that using/ making the technology for conberstion to hydrogen cars is an hugely energy expensive phenomenon in itself
I was given a very simple to watch and yet hard hitting DVD called End of Suburbia. It's available from www.endofsuburbia.com
Although made and aimed at the USA, it is also totally relevant to Australia. One of the things it points out is that using/ making the technology for conberstion to hydrogen cars is an hugely energy expensive phenomenon in itself
.....Can't juggle balls but I sure as hell can juggle details....
journeyman
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
Posted:
As prommised under "hydrogen Powered Cars" Ive starded a new thread for energy calculations, etc. HERE IS THE CORRECTED VERSION DONE WHEN I AM PROPERLY AWAKE
Some quick calculations to consider
Radius of Earth = 6.37 * 10^6 M, Therefore area of Eath cut down the centre and stuck in the sun = 1.28*10^14 M2
Area of Earth * solar intensity( 1kw per m2) *24Hr * 3600 seconds per hour = 1.10*10^22 Joules per day.
Assuming 2% of this energy is converted to biomass and 1/3 of the Earth is not under water , Thats 7.34 * 10^19 joules to play with.
Thats about 12238 MJ per person per day.
One value Ive recently heard for the energy practically able to be harnessed from a litre of hydrocabon fuel, (9.1 kilowatt hours ), equates to about 33 MJ. (I havent confirmed this yet)
So this theoretical maximum equates to about 371L of fuel per person per day.
Unfortunately most of this land is not vegetated at all, let alone growing plant matter at it's maximum rate ( actually only possible with energy consuming fertilizers and irrigation).
Lets assume 10% arrable land and plants growing at half their maximum rate. Thats now about 18.5L per person per day. These figures look better when you remember to convert 1 kw into 1000w, and get the correct radius for the Earth, but we are still in strife because this forgets we need to gather, process and distribute the fuel produced from this biomass. That would probably leave about 5L of fuel per person per day , even before we start building the machinery to do it with.
Now you see the problem with biofuel, hydrogen from solar, etc, THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH ENERGY COMMING IN TO REPLACE WHAT WE USE. The only option is to live within our means.
For even more bad news on how soon that time will come, look up stuff on "peak oil" and dispare if your satisfaction comes from anything reliant on fossil fuels.
(Please feel free to verify and correct these figures if you find any errors).
As prommised under "hydrogen Powered Cars" Ive starded a new thread for energy calculations, etc. HERE IS THE CORRECTED VERSION DONE WHEN I AM PROPERLY AWAKE
Some quick calculations to consider
Radius of Earth = 6.37 * 10^6 M, Therefore area of Eath cut down the centre and stuck in the sun = 1.28*10^14 M2
Area of Earth * solar intensity( 1kw per m2) *24Hr * 3600 seconds per hour = 1.10*10^22 Joules per day.
Assuming 2% of this energy is converted to biomass and 1/3 of the Earth is not under water , Thats 7.34 * 10^19 joules to play with.
Thats about 12238 MJ per person per day.
One value Ive recently heard for the energy practically able to be harnessed from a litre of hydrocabon fuel, (9.1 kilowatt hours ), equates to about 33 MJ. (I havent confirmed this yet)
So this theoretical maximum equates to about 371L of fuel per person per day.
Unfortunately most of this land is not vegetated at all, let alone growing plant matter at it's maximum rate ( actually only possible with energy consuming fertilizers and irrigation).
Lets assume 10% arrable land and plants growing at half their maximum rate. Thats now about 18.5L per person per day. These figures look better when you remember to convert 1 kw into 1000w, and get the correct radius for the Earth, but we are still in strife because this forgets we need to gather, process and distribute the fuel produced from this biomass. That would probably leave about 5L of fuel per person per day , even before we start building the machinery to do it with.
Now you see the problem with biofuel, hydrogen from solar, etc, THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH ENERGY COMMING IN TO REPLACE WHAT WE USE. The only option is to live within our means.
For even more bad news on how soon that time will come, look up stuff on "peak oil" and dispare if your satisfaction comes from anything reliant on fossil fuels.
(Please feel free to verify and correct these figures if you find any errors).
NYC
9,232 posts
Location: NYC, NY, USA
9,232 posts
Location: NYC, NY, USA
Posted:
*Yawn*
Same old same old.
Whenever energy resourses become scarce, price goes up. Whenever price goes up people conserve.
Gas prices jumped 30 cents and all of a sudden the entire world's automanufacturers started producing hybrids because people stopped buying SUVs.
And yes, your calculations are wrong. You've completely left out Nuclear reactions which take an extremely small amount of mass and convert it to an ungodly amount of energy. E = MC^2.
And that's only fusion. Figure out how to tap fission and we're set for billions of lifetimes.
There are practical implications as well as safety implications... but from a purely numerical standpoint, you're way off.
Nuclear power (what's powering like 80% of France right?) is totally not in your equation and therefore negates every number you've got up there.
But at least you're doing math and that's always good practice.
*Yawn*
Same old same old.
Whenever energy resourses become scarce, price goes up. Whenever price goes up people conserve.
Gas prices jumped 30 cents and all of a sudden the entire world's automanufacturers started producing hybrids because people stopped buying SUVs.
And yes, your calculations are wrong. You've completely left out Nuclear reactions which take an extremely small amount of mass and convert it to an ungodly amount of energy. E = MC^2.
And that's only fusion. Figure out how to tap fission and we're set for billions of lifetimes.
There are practical implications as well as safety implications... but from a purely numerical standpoint, you're way off.
Nuclear power (what's powering like 80% of France right?) is totally not in your equation and therefore negates every number you've got up there.
But at least you're doing math and that's always good practice.
Well, shall we go?
Yes, let's go.
[They do not move.]
journeyman
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
97 posts
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
Posted:
Thanks to you all for the feedback and applogies once again for the radius and units errors that were in the late night edition.
Energy wise, the Earth intercepts almost the same amount of solar energy with or without refractive effects from the atmosphere, so for a simple calculation it won't matter. The energy intercepted is therefore aproximated well by a disk recieving 24 hours of sunlight. However the curved surface has huge implications for light available per square metre, especially away from the equator. This will limit plant growth but is way beyond the calculations I want to try. Reflection will reduce the per capita energy aswell, but this calculation was done to demonstrate the best outcome. All other compensations will reduce this value.
I am not in any way a nuclear power expert, so anyone who konws the amount of available nuclear fuels and their maximum utilisation rates ,can you please put up the values here.
Nuclear fuel is still a non renuable fuel, so sooner or later we have to rely on the (non renuable nuclear) energy coming in from the sun. Fusion done here on Earth may well solve our problems, I dont know the figures but I do know we cant yet do it safely in a controled way. Either way I dont have much faith humanity would use such technology wisely or be trustable with the waste products.
Apart from the fact that economics has to operate within the laws of physics, not the other way round, the problem with prices is that they go up after a resource has already become scarce. This means what could have been used wisely for a long time is wasted untill it is nearly all gone , and people only realise when it's to late.
If anyone can confirm the energy value per litre of fuel please do so as I dont have time to look it up at the moment.
Thanks once again for you replies.
Thanks to you all for the feedback and applogies once again for the radius and units errors that were in the late night edition.
Energy wise, the Earth intercepts almost the same amount of solar energy with or without refractive effects from the atmosphere, so for a simple calculation it won't matter. The energy intercepted is therefore aproximated well by a disk recieving 24 hours of sunlight. However the curved surface has huge implications for light available per square metre, especially away from the equator. This will limit plant growth but is way beyond the calculations I want to try. Reflection will reduce the per capita energy aswell, but this calculation was done to demonstrate the best outcome. All other compensations will reduce this value.
I am not in any way a nuclear power expert, so anyone who konws the amount of available nuclear fuels and their maximum utilisation rates ,can you please put up the values here.
Nuclear fuel is still a non renuable fuel, so sooner or later we have to rely on the (non renuable nuclear) energy coming in from the sun. Fusion done here on Earth may well solve our problems, I dont know the figures but I do know we cant yet do it safely in a controled way. Either way I dont have much faith humanity would use such technology wisely or be trustable with the waste products.
Apart from the fact that economics has to operate within the laws of physics, not the other way round, the problem with prices is that they go up after a resource has already become scarce. This means what could have been used wisely for a long time is wasted untill it is nearly all gone , and people only realise when it's to late.
If anyone can confirm the energy value per litre of fuel please do so as I dont have time to look it up at the moment.
Thanks once again for you replies.
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
-bump-
I think it's time for a thread revival, as there is no way enough info about this, and we're on the verge of peak oil and economic collapse right now.
I've been doing some digging recently, and I found this incredibly worrying analysis. It certainly puts things into perspective. I strongly suggest reading.
I really hope that site is wrong, but I can't bring myself to believe it's wrong. It sounds too spot on, and explains too much. So what do people think? Is this the end of modern western civilisation, or will we find a way to muddle through? And even IF the economy totally collapses, is the end of capitalism and corporate rule a bad thing? Opinions please!
-bump-
I think it's time for a thread revival, as there is no way enough info about this, and we're on the verge of peak oil and economic collapse right now.
I've been doing some digging recently, and I found this incredibly worrying analysis. It certainly puts things into perspective. I strongly suggest reading.
I really hope that site is wrong, but I can't bring myself to believe it's wrong. It sounds too spot on, and explains too much. So what do people think? Is this the end of modern western civilisation, or will we find a way to muddle through? And even IF the economy totally collapses, is the end of capitalism and corporate rule a bad thing? Opinions please!
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
PLATINUM Member
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Posted:
nah... biodiesel is only a derivative of oil until you start to run the tractors on biodiesel instead of normal diesel. Then it's decoupled from oil. You can do the same with food distribution vehicles and most large machines that run on diesel. and if you can't people will find a way when the oil starts getting really expensive.
It's stupid to say that nuclear power is coupled to oil. And electricity, most industrial processes could as easily use electricity or natural gas or coal to power them.
When oil gets really expensive, people will make machines and vehicles that rely less on it, and come up with new processes that don't rely on petroleum products. It's a simple incentive, don't use oil = save money. When have business deliberately crippled themselves by not finding cheaper alternatives? Not when they're getting products made in sweatshops in china.
nah... biodiesel is only a derivative of oil until you start to run the tractors on biodiesel instead of normal diesel. Then it's decoupled from oil. You can do the same with food distribution vehicles and most large machines that run on diesel. and if you can't people will find a way when the oil starts getting really expensive.
It's stupid to say that nuclear power is coupled to oil. And electricity, most industrial processes could as easily use electricity or natural gas or coal to power them.
When oil gets really expensive, people will make machines and vehicles that rely less on it, and come up with new processes that don't rely on petroleum products. It's a simple incentive, don't use oil = save money. When have business deliberately crippled themselves by not finding cheaper alternatives? Not when they're getting products made in sweatshops in china.
"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade
I spunked in my friend's aquarium and the fish ate it. I love all fish. Especially the pink ones. They are my bitches. - Anon.
BRONZE Member
Macaque of all trades
8,738 posts
Location: wombling free..., United Kingdom
Macaque of all trades
8,738 posts
Location: wombling free..., United Kingdom
Posted:
was the sea acyually discounted for energy reserves in that equations? because I'm sure there are resources there that people are lookiing into. not ideal but you can bet someone will try (other than your standard off shore oil rigs)
was the sea acyually discounted for energy reserves in that equations? because I'm sure there are resources there that people are lookiing into. not ideal but you can bet someone will try (other than your standard off shore oil rigs)
A couple of balls short of a full cascade... or maybe a few cards short of a deck... we'll see how this all fans out.
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
It's not so much about whether Biodiesel or other fuel types could replace oil. No doubt they could, but not in the timeframe needed, or to the extent that we need.
Article on biomass fuel viability
And also, though saving on oil and money is a good idea individually, it actually pushes UP the rate of oil consumption. Sounds nonsensical?
The problem is scalability. We are so utterly reliant on oil for the entire infrastructure of our civilisation that we can't possibly replace it before it runs out. We can delay the inevitable, and if we use lots of different technologies (biodiesel, renewables like solar and wind power, etc) we can replace some of it, but we still have to cut consumption right back if it's going to be enough. It's debatable whether we will actually be able to do this without massive economic upheaval, and BIG changes to the way society works.
It's not so much about whether Biodiesel or other fuel types could replace oil. No doubt they could, but not in the timeframe needed, or to the extent that we need.
Article on biomass fuel viability
And also, though saving on oil and money is a good idea individually, it actually pushes UP the rate of oil consumption. Sounds nonsensical?
Written by: main article
Amazingly, such efforts will actually make our situation worse. This probably makes absolutely no sense unless you understand how the modern day banking and monetary system works. To illustrate, let's visit Jevon's Paradox, with an example:
Pretend you own a computer store and that your monthly energy bill, as of December 2004, is $1,000. You then learn about the coming energy famine and decide to do your part by conserving as much as possible. You install energy efficient lighting, high quality insulation, and ask your employees to wear sweaters so as to minimize the use of your store's heating system.
After implementing these conservation measures, you manage to lower your energy bill by 50% - down to $500 per month.
While you certainly deserve a pat-on-the-back and while your business will certainly become more profitable as a result of your conservation efforts, you have in no way helped reduce our overall energy appetite. In fact, you have actually increased it.
At this point, you may be asking yourself, "How could I have possibly increased our total energy consumption when I just cut my own consumption by $500/month? That doesn't seem to make common sense . . .?"
Well think about what you're going to do with that extra $500 per month you saved. If you're like most people, you're going to do one of two things:
Option #1. You will reinvest the $500 in your business. For instance, you might spend the $500 on more advertising. This will bring in more customers, which will result in more computers being sold. Since, as mentioned previously, the average desktop computer consumes 10X it's weight fossil-fuels just during its construction, your individual effort at conserving energy has resulted in the consumption of more energy.
Option #2. You will simply deposit the $500 in your bank accoun where it will accumulate interest. Since you're not using the money to buy or sell anything, it can't possibly be used to facilitate an increase in energy consumption, right?
Wrong. For every dollar a bank holds in deposits, it will loan out between six and twelve dollars. These loans are then used by the bank's customers to do everything from starting businesses to making down payments on vehicles to purchasing computers.
Thus, your $500 deposit will allow the bank to make between $3,000 and $6,000 in loans - most of which will be used to buy, build,or transport things using fossil fuel energy.
Typically, Jevon's Paradox is one of the aspects of our situation that people find difficult to get their minds around. Perhaps one additional example will help clarify it:
Think of our economy as a giant petroleum powered machine that turns raw materials into consumer goods which are later turned into garbage:
Petroleum In > The Economy Garbage Out >
If you remove the machine's internal inefficiencies, the extra energy is simply reinvested into the petroleum supply side of the machine. The machine then consumes petroleum and spits out garbage at an even faster rate.
The only way to get the machine to consume less petroleum is for whoever owns/operates the machine to press the button that says "slow-down." However, since we are all dependent on the machine for jobs, food, affordable health care, subsidies for alternative forms of energy, etc., nobody is going to lobby the owners/operators of the machine to press the "slow-down" button until it's too late.
Eventually (sooner than later) the petroleum plug will get pulled and the machine's production will sputter before grinding to a halt. At that point, those of us dependent on the machine (which means all of us) will have to fight for whatever scraps it manages to spit out.
To be clear: conservation will benefit you as an individual. If, for instance, you save $100/month on your energy bills, you can roll that money into acquiring skills or resources that will benefit you as we slide down the petroleum-production downslope. But since your $100 savings will result in a net increase in the energy consumed by society as a whole, it will actually cause us to slide down the downslope faster.
The problem is scalability. We are so utterly reliant on oil for the entire infrastructure of our civilisation that we can't possibly replace it before it runs out. We can delay the inevitable, and if we use lots of different technologies (biodiesel, renewables like solar and wind power, etc) we can replace some of it, but we still have to cut consumption right back if it's going to be enough. It's debatable whether we will actually be able to do this without massive economic upheaval, and BIG changes to the way society works.
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
Mynci: yes, the sea has been discounted. It's not worth the monetary gain for the big oil companies, and the energy they'd use actually setting up new refineries is more than the reserves. Add to that the fact that it takes the best part of a decade for a single refinery to come online, which is WAY past the tipping point.
Mynci: yes, the sea has been discounted. It's not worth the monetary gain for the big oil companies, and the energy they'd use actually setting up new refineries is more than the reserves. Add to that the fact that it takes the best part of a decade for a single refinery to come online, which is WAY past the tipping point.
Written by: main article
According to an October 2004 New York Times article entitled "Top Oil Groups Fail to Recoup Exploration Costs:"
. . . the top-10 oil groups spent about $8bn combined on exploration last year, but this only led to commercial discoveries with a net present value of slightly less than $4bn. The previous two years show similar, though less dramatic, shortfalls.
In other words, significant new oil discoveries are so scarce that looking for them is a monetary loser. Consequently, many major oil companies now find themselves unable to replace their rapidly depleting reserves. A June 2006 report indicated the world's biggest five oil companies are now "focusing on developing existing reserves." That's a nice way of saying "there aren't enough significant sized oil fields left to find to make it worth our time and money to look for them."
During the 1960s, for instance, we consumed about 6 billion barrels per year while finding about 30-60 billion per year. Given those numbers, it is easy to understand why fears of "running out" were so often dismissed as unfounded.
Unfortunately, those consumption/discovery ratios have nearly reversed themselves in recent years. We now consume close to 30 billion barrels per year but find less than 4 billion per year.
In light of these trends, it should come as little surprise that the energy analysts at John C Herold Inc. - the firm that foretold Enron's demise - recently confirmed industry rumors that we are on the verge of an unprecedented crisis.
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
PLATINUM Member
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Posted:
No, but that report was on australia alone, and detailing biomass, I don't know how biomass and biodiesel are linked... do you get one out of the other? I have no idea.
I'm sure biodiesel isn't the only answer, nor will it solve all problems ever. But when normal diesel runs out, tractors won't just be discarded, they'll be run on something else, alcohol, biodiesel, hydrogen fuel cells, horses, electricity or whatever. So agriculture isn't really dependent on oil. Neither is most machinery. (cept planes, far as i know.)
Love the bank article. Beautifully defeatist. I knew keeping money in my mattress was a good idea.
No, but that report was on australia alone, and detailing biomass, I don't know how biomass and biodiesel are linked... do you get one out of the other? I have no idea.
I'm sure biodiesel isn't the only answer, nor will it solve all problems ever. But when normal diesel runs out, tractors won't just be discarded, they'll be run on something else, alcohol, biodiesel, hydrogen fuel cells, horses, electricity or whatever. So agriculture isn't really dependent on oil. Neither is most machinery. (cept planes, far as i know.)
Love the bank article. Beautifully defeatist. I knew keeping money in my mattress was a good idea.
"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade
I spunked in my friend's aquarium and the fish ate it. I love all fish. Especially the pink ones. They are my bitches. - Anon.
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
Yes, it is somewhat of a downer. Even helping screws us over. Do'h!
The biomass article was pulled from a link on the life-after-the-oil-crash site, on the 2nd page. There's a fairly convicing argument about the feasibility of biomass derived fuels (I assumed biodiesel fell into this category, I may be wrong though). I've had a read of some of the linked articles there, and they all seem to point to the same conclusion, that the oil will run out and cause the crash before we have time to implement solutions.
I'm checking out books on sustainable living and scouring google earth for a nice island to live on.
Yes, it is somewhat of a downer. Even helping screws us over. Do'h!
The biomass article was pulled from a link on the life-after-the-oil-crash site, on the 2nd page. There's a fairly convicing argument about the feasibility of biomass derived fuels (I assumed biodiesel fell into this category, I may be wrong though). I've had a read of some of the linked articles there, and they all seem to point to the same conclusion, that the oil will run out and cause the crash before we have time to implement solutions.
I'm checking out books on sustainable living and scouring google earth for a nice island to live on.
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
BRONZE Member
Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
3,289 posts
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
3,289 posts
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted:
agriculture is completely dependant on oil - for transportation and in the production of fertiliser, pesticides and fungicides. BD wont sort us out because its a monoculture that will require pesticides etc to look after it.
Cheap energy as we know it is doomed. Societies that require it, are also doomed.
yay!
agriculture is completely dependant on oil - for transportation and in the production of fertiliser, pesticides and fungicides. BD wont sort us out because its a monoculture that will require pesticides etc to look after it.
Cheap energy as we know it is doomed. Societies that require it, are also doomed.
yay!
--
Help! My personality got stuck in this signature machine and I cant get it out!
Stargazer
6,650 posts
6,650 posts
Posted:
We're not on the verge of an economical collapse and oil is not running out anytime soon. There are massive pockets, but drilling for that juice is too expensive at this point (unless the price per barrel is rising).
Further there are newly discovered pockets near Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam - which are estimated to hold as much oil as the Saudi Arabian pockets.
It's getting closer to winter, the northern hemisphere needs a lot of oil to heat their houses - perfect timing to raise prices.
Many large machines and trucks could run on biodiesel, yet it is highly subsidised by governments.
We're not doomed, guys - just kept busy to think the world (as we know it) is coming to an end. This way we will appreciate the (industrial) saviours and decorate them.
Pls note that most articles only represent opinions - those of the scientists, the author and the editor.
We're not on the verge of an economical collapse and oil is not running out anytime soon. There are massive pockets, but drilling for that juice is too expensive at this point (unless the price per barrel is rising).
Further there are newly discovered pockets near Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam - which are estimated to hold as much oil as the Saudi Arabian pockets.
It's getting closer to winter, the northern hemisphere needs a lot of oil to heat their houses - perfect timing to raise prices.
Many large machines and trucks could run on biodiesel, yet it is highly subsidised by governments.
We're not doomed, guys - just kept busy to think the world (as we know it) is coming to an end. This way we will appreciate the (industrial) saviours and decorate them.
Pls note that most articles only represent opinions - those of the scientists, the author and the editor.
the best smiles are the ones you lead to 
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
Not sure about anyone else, but I tend to trust the opinions of scientists.
To be honest, I still haven't made my mind up as to what I believe yet. The oil crash sites are all doom and gloom, yet their arguments (especially life-after-the-oil-crash) are extremely comprehensive, and cite sources too, whereas I haven't seen any sources cited for discoveries of new oil fields apart from the Jack-2 field which will yield about 3 months supply.
Tom, can you point me in the direction of some info about those new oil fields you mentioned?
Written by: FireTom
Pls note that most articles only represent opinions - those of the scientists, the author and the editor.
Not sure about anyone else, but I tend to trust the opinions of scientists.
To be honest, I still haven't made my mind up as to what I believe yet. The oil crash sites are all doom and gloom, yet their arguments (especially life-after-the-oil-crash) are extremely comprehensive, and cite sources too, whereas I haven't seen any sources cited for discoveries of new oil fields apart from the Jack-2 field which will yield about 3 months supply.
Tom, can you point me in the direction of some info about those new oil fields you mentioned?
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
PLATINUM Member
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Posted:
I don't know, plenty of farms I know use organic fertiliser / cow poo. But I'm willing to be the big ones all use oil dependant ones. I'm not saying that we won't have to trim the fat off our population but agriculture won't collapse. There are plenty of ways to make plants grow well without pesticides and such. Even monocultures. After all, the fuel for plant growth is the sun, (and water... but that isn't so much an issue here) not pesticides.
Necessity is the mother of invention. And it will be necessary to live without oil.
Plus I dislike terror mongering in general, so I'd rather keep a moderate view on the problem.
I don't know, plenty of farms I know use organic fertiliser / cow poo. But I'm willing to be the big ones all use oil dependant ones. I'm not saying that we won't have to trim the fat off our population but agriculture won't collapse. There are plenty of ways to make plants grow well without pesticides and such. Even monocultures. After all, the fuel for plant growth is the sun, (and water... but that isn't so much an issue here) not pesticides.
Necessity is the mother of invention. And it will be necessary to live without oil.
Plus I dislike terror mongering in general, so I'd rather keep a moderate view on the problem.
"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade
I spunked in my friend's aquarium and the fish ate it. I love all fish. Especially the pink ones. They are my bitches. - Anon.
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
I agree. I think there will be lots of positive things that come out of it, even if we do have to go through a crash first.
I think the solutions are going to come from the bottom up, rather than top down. Power solutions for individuals, rather than replacing the big utility services. Standard houses having solar panels and wind turbines and generating electricity that way, rather than rinsing the national grid, that sort of thing. Food and agriculture will be an issue, but if more people start growing their own food, that can only be a good thing. The end of cheap oil, and the start of tasty munch!
Either way, I think we're in for an interesting time in the next 20 years or so.
Edit: Sweden have the right idea....
EDITED_BY: Sambo_Flux (1189773791)
I agree. I think there will be lots of positive things that come out of it, even if we do have to go through a crash first.
I think the solutions are going to come from the bottom up, rather than top down. Power solutions for individuals, rather than replacing the big utility services. Standard houses having solar panels and wind turbines and generating electricity that way, rather than rinsing the national grid, that sort of thing. Food and agriculture will be an issue, but if more people start growing their own food, that can only be a good thing. The end of cheap oil, and the start of tasty munch!
Either way, I think we're in for an interesting time in the next 20 years or so.
Edit: Sweden have the right idea....
EDITED_BY: Sambo_Flux (1189773791)
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
member
143 posts
Location: Broomfield, Colorado
143 posts
Location: Broomfield, Colorado
Posted:
Ah yes. Well from a purely electrical standpoint, there is a HUGE capacity for the building of tidal power generators on Earth. If we harness the power of the oceans, imagine how much oil that would free up. Personally I think from a US perspective that we should utilise a very under-used state. Hawaii. Think about it, those tropical trade winds already power wind farms over there, expand them. The big island should be immediately harnessed for geothermal power. All that lava just waiting to be put to use as energy. Then of course the aforementioned tidal power idea.
Then you just have to figure out a way to export that extra juice.
On the oil proper end...We have to put pressure on the auto makers and for the love of god, LEAN ON THE CHINESE! We're already elbowing them quite effectively (well, in quite effectively I mean they're taking baby steps, which for the chinese government is moving mountains) over Darfur, let's keep the pressure on about their oil usage.
In the mean time let us not be hypocrites ourselves. Ditch the car whenever possible. Use public transportation, walk, or cycle. It's really conveniant and often times a lot better than driving.
Written by: Mynci
was the sea acyually discounted for energy reserves in that equations? because I'm sure there are resources there that people are lookiing into. not ideal but you can bet someone will try (other than your standard off shore oil rigs)
Ah yes. Well from a purely electrical standpoint, there is a HUGE capacity for the building of tidal power generators on Earth. If we harness the power of the oceans, imagine how much oil that would free up. Personally I think from a US perspective that we should utilise a very under-used state. Hawaii. Think about it, those tropical trade winds already power wind farms over there, expand them. The big island should be immediately harnessed for geothermal power. All that lava just waiting to be put to use as energy. Then of course the aforementioned tidal power idea.
Then you just have to figure out a way to export that extra juice.
On the oil proper end...We have to put pressure on the auto makers and for the love of god, LEAN ON THE CHINESE! We're already elbowing them quite effectively (well, in quite effectively I mean they're taking baby steps, which for the chinese government is moving mountains) over Darfur, let's keep the pressure on about their oil usage.
In the mean time let us not be hypocrites ourselves. Ditch the car whenever possible. Use public transportation, walk, or cycle. It's really conveniant and often times a lot better than driving.
"Watch those explosions in the sky and you'll go blind, but not this time. Will you live in hope or dark desire? What can I say? F*ck love give me fire." ~Cities Of Night by Blaqk Audio (Davey Havok)
Proudly MCRmy
Stargazer
6,650 posts
6,650 posts
Posted:
Whilst the evidence might be fact, the conclusions drawn from them vary. How many scientific findings had to get corrected. At some stage it has been "scientifically proven" that the earth is flat
To me a "theory" is a "scientific opinion"... But that's just me.
Sure can...
However - even IF oil would run out, those doomsday predicitions are nothing but fiction and mostly propagated to create paranoia and dependancy. You really believe "the world as we know it" would come to an end, just because oil is running out?
I'd be more concerned about potable water, than oil...
Written by: Sambo_Flux
Not sure about anyone else, but I tend to trust the opinions of scientists.
Whilst the evidence might be fact, the conclusions drawn from them vary. How many scientific findings had to get corrected. At some stage it has been "scientifically proven" that the earth is flat
To me a "theory" is a "scientific opinion"... But that's just me. Written by: SF
(...)whereas I haven't seen any sources cited for discoveries of new oil fields apart from the Jack-2 field which will yield about 3 months supply.
Tom, can you point me in the direction of some info about those new oil fields you mentioned?
Sure can...
Written by: wpr
Cambodians might be sitting on as much as two billion barrels of oil and 10 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to reports by the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), but those bodies fear that unless it is handled well the country, already ravaged by acute poverty, may become the Nigeria of East Asia.
Written by: Asia TimesFull article
US oil giant Chevron has indicated a huge oil-and-gas find off Cambodia's south coast, where it has reportedly hit black in four out of five well tests. Cambodian energy official Te Duong Tara last week estimated that the 6,278-square-kilometer Block A that Chevron is drilling could contain as much as 700 million barrels of oil, or nearly twice the earlier 400-million-barrel estimate.
However - even IF oil would run out, those doomsday predicitions are nothing but fiction and mostly propagated to create paranoia and dependancy. You really believe "the world as we know it" would come to an end, just because oil is running out?
I'd be more concerned about potable water, than oil...
the best smiles are the ones you lead to
Stargazer
6,650 posts
6,650 posts
Posted:
Ooops... Most scientific papers are probably wrong, says "newscientist"
Ooops... Most scientific papers are probably wrong, says "newscientist"
the best smiles are the ones you lead to
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
Peak oil hits the Australian newspapers
and
former Shell chairman predicts oil crisis in the Independent
and taken from the above article:
Plus:
Another informative Independent article about Peak Oil
Yes.
Oil underpinns our entire (western) civilization. 10 Calories of fossil fuels are burnt to provide every 1 calory of food eaten in the US. Pesticides and farm machinery are reliant on oil based products. And that computer you're posting these replies on? Made using oil as well.
On top of that, it takes oil to build wind turbines, nuclear power stations, tidal barrages, and pretty much any other renewable power processing station you can imagine.
The more digging I do on this, the more I'm inclined to think we're actually seriously screwed. Western civilisation has been burying it's head in the sand, and is soon to hear a big fat wake up call. If someone can come up with a sound rebuttal for ANY of the arguments postulated on life after the oil crash, lets hear them. Please. I want to be convinced it's not true. I really do.
To paraphrase Bill Hicks: I don't mean to sound cynical or pessimistic. But I am, so that's how it comes out.
EDITED_BY: Sambo_Flux (1190151994)
Peak oil hits the Australian newspapers
and
former Shell chairman predicts oil crisis in the Independent
and taken from the above article:
Written by: Indpendent Business News
The International Energy Agency has forecast what it calls an oil "supply crunch" by 2012, a prediction that Lord Oxburgh said could possibly come to pass. Lord Oxburgh is currently chairman of D1 Oils, a biodiesel company listed on the AIM market.
Plus:
Another informative Independent article about Peak Oil
Written by: Firetom
However - even IF oil would run out, those doomsday predicitions are nothing but fiction and mostly propagated to create paranoia and dependancy. You really believe "the world as we know it" would come to an end, just because oil is running out?
Yes.
Oil underpinns our entire (western) civilization. 10 Calories of fossil fuels are burnt to provide every 1 calory of food eaten in the US. Pesticides and farm machinery are reliant on oil based products. And that computer you're posting these replies on? Made using oil as well.
On top of that, it takes oil to build wind turbines, nuclear power stations, tidal barrages, and pretty much any other renewable power processing station you can imagine.
Written by: LATOC
It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.
In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and all high-tech devices. Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels:
Automobiles:
The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels of oil, which equates to 840 gallons, of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.
It's also worth nothing that the construction of an average car consumes almost 120,000 gallons of fresh water, which is also rapidly depleting and happens to be crucial to the petroleum refining process.
Microchips:
The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630 grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5 pounds of water.
The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten computers is enough to produce an automobile."
Computers:
The construction of the average desktop computer consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.
The more digging I do on this, the more I'm inclined to think we're actually seriously screwed. Western civilisation has been burying it's head in the sand, and is soon to hear a big fat wake up call. If someone can come up with a sound rebuttal for ANY of the arguments postulated on life after the oil crash, lets hear them. Please. I want to be convinced it's not true. I really do.
To paraphrase Bill Hicks: I don't mean to sound cynical or pessimistic. But I am, so that's how it comes out.
EDITED_BY: Sambo_Flux (1190151994)
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
Stargazer
6,650 posts
6,650 posts
Posted:
Sambo, please - even though I'm neither friends with the ever-positive outlook nor the permanent doomsday predictions, I am certain that this will be resolved.
Not only I am certain that the planet still holds enough pockets to even supply China with enough fossil fuels, I am certain that we will find a derivate for oil (as biodiesel or synthetic oils). Mankind will enforce "alternate" ("" because really the sun is the main source of) power supply and find ways out of this.
Not only the pockets off Cambodia might hold sufficient, with icecaps melting there might be more pockets to be found, containing oil.
If you have nothing else to worry about in your life, you may well align your mind worrying along with ppl concerned about
- Terrorist threats
- Global warming
- Iran building nukes
- Avian flu
- Mad cows disease
- The millennium bug (errm I guess that one's off the agenda, as is the)
- Cold war heating up
- The Mayan Calendar finally ending 2012
If all of this one is solved we'll be looking for something else for those who need something to worry about.
Sambo, please - even though I'm neither friends with the ever-positive outlook nor the permanent doomsday predictions, I am certain that this will be resolved.
Not only I am certain that the planet still holds enough pockets to even supply China with enough fossil fuels, I am certain that we will find a derivate for oil (as biodiesel or synthetic oils). Mankind will enforce "alternate" ("" because really the sun is the main source of) power supply and find ways out of this.
Not only the pockets off Cambodia might hold sufficient, with icecaps melting there might be more pockets to be found, containing oil.
If you have nothing else to worry about in your life, you may well align your mind worrying along with ppl concerned about
- Terrorist threats
- Global warming
- Iran building nukes
- Avian flu
- Mad cows disease
- The millennium bug (errm I guess that one's off the agenda, as is the)
- Cold war heating up
- The Mayan Calendar finally ending 2012
If all of this one is solved we'll be looking for something else for those who need something to worry about.
the best smiles are the ones you lead to
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
Eep, I'd forgotten about the Mayan calendar!
*runs off in a screaming panic*
Seriously though, I'm not trying to be a doomsayer (even though this is a doomsday thread). I think this is more of an issue that people think, but it's not going to be an apocalypse. Might be hard for a while, but I believe in humanity enough to think we'll muddle through. But then again, I'm fairly sure things will change drastically, and the more people are aware of the problem, the better prepared we can be...
Eep, I'd forgotten about the Mayan calendar!
*runs off in a screaming panic*
Seriously though, I'm not trying to be a doomsayer (even though this is a doomsday thread). I think this is more of an issue that people think, but it's not going to be an apocalypse. Might be hard for a while, but I believe in humanity enough to think we'll muddle through. But then again, I'm fairly sure things will change drastically, and the more people are aware of the problem, the better prepared we can be...
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
Stargazer
6,650 posts
6,650 posts
Posted:
Well said!
And now I get your angle Thanks for explaining yourself...
Non-Https Image Link
But according to Nostradamus we will not be doomed that easy and soon
Well said!
And now I get your angle Thanks for explaining yourself...Non-Https Image Link
But according to Nostradamus we will not be doomed that easy and soon
the best smiles are the ones you lead to
PLATINUM Member
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Posted:
hope is a better catalyst for change than despair.
And I hate all the fear mongering that goes on, on a gradually rising level everyday.
hope is a better catalyst for change than despair.
And I hate all the fear mongering that goes on, on a gradually rising level everyday.
"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade
I spunked in my friend's aquarium and the fish ate it. I love all fish. Especially the pink ones. They are my bitches. - Anon.
GOLD Member
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Introverted
833 posts
Location: Norf London, United Kingdom
Posted:
True. I don't like fear-mongering either, but then again, if someone is standing on a train track, you'd warn them about an oncoming train if you saw it and they didn't.
Hope lies in understanding, not ignorance. There's lots of solutions, but none of them will get taken seriously unless people are aware that there is a problem in the first place.
Written by: mcp
hope is a better catalyst for change than despair.
And I hate all the fear mongering that goes on, on a gradually rising level everyday.
True. I don't like fear-mongering either, but then again, if someone is standing on a train track, you'd warn them about an oncoming train if you saw it and they didn't.
Hope lies in understanding, not ignorance. There's lots of solutions, but none of them will get taken seriously unless people are aware that there is a problem in the first place.
My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean
If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?
BRONZE Member
Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
3,289 posts
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
3,289 posts
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted:
Hope: I hope someone works out a way to produce energy at least as cheaply as oil so that I dont have to change.
Despair: well thats it, the seas are rising, theres more hurricanes and typhoons, the crops are failing again...perhaps I better reconsider my lifestyle?
hope makes people feel better in powerless situations, and it has religious connotations I'm not into either.
Josh
Hope: I hope someone works out a way to produce energy at least as cheaply as oil so that I dont have to change.
Despair: well thats it, the seas are rising, theres more hurricanes and typhoons, the crops are failing again...perhaps I better reconsider my lifestyle?
hope makes people feel better in powerless situations, and it has religious connotations I'm not into either.
Josh
--
Help! My personality got stuck in this signature machine and I cant get it out!
PLATINUM Member
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Flying Water Muppet
5,276 posts
Location: Edin-borrow., United Kingdom
Posted:
josh: That's really your view of despair?
Mine was:
Hope: I hope my tiny change to the world will have an effect. I hope everybody realises that they can change their behaviours too. I hope that the predictions don't turn out to be the worse of all worlds and I hope my kids will have a planet they can live on in the future, so i might try and help make it so.
Despair: well thats it, the seas are rising, theres more hurricanes and typhoons, the crops are failing again... I can't do anything to stop it. Nothing I do makes a difference cos it's so small. I might as well not bother at all.
I always feel that negative emotions don't lead to action and positive ones do. That might just be me thou.
josh: That's really your view of despair?
Mine was:
Hope: I hope my tiny change to the world will have an effect. I hope everybody realises that they can change their behaviours too. I hope that the predictions don't turn out to be the worse of all worlds and I hope my kids will have a planet they can live on in the future, so i might try and help make it so.
Despair: well thats it, the seas are rising, theres more hurricanes and typhoons, the crops are failing again... I can't do anything to stop it. Nothing I do makes a difference cos it's so small. I might as well not bother at all.
I always feel that negative emotions don't lead to action and positive ones do. That might just be me thou.
"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade
I spunked in my friend's aquarium and the fish ate it. I love all fish. Especially the pink ones. They are my bitches. - Anon.
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