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Forums > Social Discussion > Peak oil "has crept up on us" ROTFL

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:Hey All,



well it looks like a major oil company has changed its tune from;



"Technology will solve our oil supply issues" to



"um actually, its going to get scarcer"



and some academic has said that peak oil has 'crept up on us' which I think is very funny, because the first discussions of peak oil were like 50 years ago.



read about it here;



http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/30/2149569.htm



Interesting bit for me is this;



"He says the situation has "snuck up on us" and the increasing scarcity of oil will cause great changes in the way people live.



"It's very important. I mean things like layouts of cities and future plans all have to take this sort of thing into account," he said.



"I mean if you look at a city like Los Angeles, if the supply of gasoline became tight, it'd be a big problem, and the same problem, smaller in lots of other places.



"Where you have work at point A, residence at point B, shops at point C and they're all miles apart."



He says most Australian cities would face the same problem."



Anyone who has watched "The End of Suburbia" would be aware of these issues - give it a watch if you can get your hands on it



http://www.endofsuburbia.com/



Josh

EDITED_BY: Pyrolific (1202940050)


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Spanner
BRONZE Member since Feb 2003

Spanner

remembers when it was all fields round here
Location: in the works... somewhere...

Total posts: 2790
Posted: Written by: article

"It's very important. I mean things like layouts of cities and future plans all have to take this sort of thing into account," he said.



"I mean if you look at a city like Los Angeles, if the supply of gasoline became tight, it'd be a big problem, and the same problem, smaller in lots of other places.



"Where you have work at point A, residence at point B, shops at point C and they're all miles apart."





That's if there'll be any more cities as I'd imagine the oil situation putting the mockers on building many more, or even maintaining existing ones.

Being able to commute and shop away from home, or at all, is just a luxury we've become accustomed to, all too often to the point of being considered a right regardless of geographical or personal circumstances.

It might help to think of concentrating on our own residential areas, however small or large we consider them to be, as an opportunity rather than the "problem" it's been described as here - not that we'll have much choice not to when the time comes anyway.



 Written by: Pyrolific



and some academic has said that peak oil has 'crept up on us' which I think is very funny, because the first discussions of peak oil were like 50 years ago.







Yep - I remember learning that at school at least 15 years ago as well.

Have just been listening to this on Radio 4 this evening which mentioned the possibility of undiscovered oil beneath the Arctic, though it'll probably be less than predicted but also almost certainly exaggerated, especially depending on whose territory it happens to be in - given their attempts to stake claim to the seabed last year, I'm thinking Russia shrug


"I thought you are man, but
you are nice woman.

yay,

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:Yes good points Spanner. Many city communities however simply don't have the space to carry the local population with local employment / produce / distribution.

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FireTom


Stargazer


Total posts: 6650
Posted:Strongly disagree. Rising oil prices will make the mining for alternative resources feasible... There's a lot of oil left, only it's (more) difficult to get. Besides there are huge oil reserves found off the Cambodian coast.

However it's a good thing to look for alternatives to fossil fuels and to adjust.

Looking at LA is a good example for the need of reorganisation. At times we run out of oil (and petrol) we will use hydrogen or simply electric powered cars. That won't be much of a problem.

Even IF it would become a problem - is it individual transportation we should be worried about? The "shopping experience"? I don't think so.

Possible solutions: car pools, order your groceries online, work from home, even homeschooling, public transport, be flexible and move along with your jobs.

I rather favour opportunities and productive challenges coming ahead than doomsday predictions.


the best smiles are the ones you lead to wink

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:Did you read the article? Dutch Shell CEO said the oil will become / is more scarce - he has specifically moved away from the 'technology will find more and solve the supply problem'.

yes there will always be some oil left - but it will become MUCH more expensive for consumers -> people who are already paying more for their grocerys (for the same reasons, as well as climate change messing up agriculture etc etc) probly wont be able to handle double / triple / quadruple car running costs. Widespread Hydrogen is a pipe dream too...

you suggest ordering your grocerys online - I dont think you have really thought that through very well Tom...you cant eat a cyber-lettuce.

Its not about what fairy tale you prefer to think about - theres a pile of evidence mounting up in front of you, and this one's coming from the head of an oil company...


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FireTom


Stargazer


Total posts: 6650
Posted:"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out."
-- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy."
-- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

"Who the h_ll wants to hear actors talk?"
-- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

Josh, a wrong prediction is a wrong prediction, no matter whether it's coming from your neighbor or the president of the US...

You may not be able to eat cyber lettuce, but you'll be able to save incredible amounts of fuel, if you don't have to go to the grocers but the grocer is coming to you.

Cambodian Oil reserves

 Written by: radio free asia

Preliminary estimates of the recoverable reserves are 400-500 million barrels of oil and 2-3 trillion cubic feet of gas. Cambodias total reserves could run as high as 2 billion barrels and 10 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to the World Bank.



However, alternatives for oil are here already, allegedly they are just too expensive to exploit. By the time oil is expensive enough, it will become economical. Whether or not the average Joe will have to starve and freeze immobilized just because oil is getting rare/ expensive, I don't know about. As much as I do know is that there are too many (powerful) ppl interested in keeping the system going as it is - which means that "they" will keep it in fashion to 'just' enable "our" survival.

Inform yourself about tar sands or "heavy oil" and alternative fuel.

To whom it may concern: Hubberts peak oil theory

You need to understand - as with all scientific data - that these data (at the most) reflect the current state of available informations. How much Arctic oil there might be, nobody definitely knows at this point. If the Shell CEO makes a prediction, it may/ not be based upon scientific data anyway. Certainly he has a very strong interest in ppl buying oil at a high price - like GWBush had strong interest in making the public believe in 'smoking guns'.

Or as Siddharta put it: "It's your mind that creates this world"

smile


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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:mmm I think its a fairly simple equation.

Earth = closed system as far as all energy reserves except solar are concerned, and especially as far as fossil fuels are concerned. We are pumping out more than we are finding (eg 20billion barrels used, 5-8billion found per year for last 20 <- from the article). And no matter which way you look at it, the oil is getting harder and harder to get, and the demand is going up (Chinese and Indian markets). Simple economics show that as supply decreases and demand increases so to does price.

I'm not talking about oil running out, I'm talking about the impact on our lives (those of us that live in cities designed for cars) massively more expensive petrol will have.

None of the ideas are complex; hydrogen is energy intensive to make and hard to distribute due to its nature. Given the unstoppable increasing demand for energy, theres a supply and demand problem going on here.

Alcohol fuels will require too much surface area to be viable as a world wide replacement (except in Brazil smile)

I guess if we want to hope for something, we should hope for a breakthrough in solar energy collection and storage, because it *might* be enough to save us if we start actually thinking its worth chasing (which our stupid govt doesn't yet).

Tom I think having a realistic view of the world is essential for creating a good future. Rosy glass thinking has created this mess.


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mcp
PLATINUM Member since May 2003

mcp

Flying Water Muppet
Location: Edin-borrow.

Total posts: 5276
Posted:Er, yeah tom, how are the groceries going to get to the supermarket you order online from? Via container ships, then via lorry, via a distribution center, then on to the supermarket and then via truck to your home. Where is the fuel for that going to come from?

Yeah, obviously everybody wants to solve this problem, but there are very few ways out. Fossil fuels contain a lot of energy and used to be readily available, we're very very dependent on them. Yeah, the us has large reserves of oil shale, but not many ways to process it yet, and none of them efficient. We still have lots of coal and natural gas, but that won't make cars run.

And please, don't even joke about biofuels and brazil, isn't the amazon rainforest our CO'2 scrubber? We need that to produce oxygen, not fuel.

When it gets down to it, we have only three energy sources, the sun, the moon and the earth. And I don't think their input comes close to our current oil consumption. So something has to change.


"the now legendary" - Kaskade
"the still legendary" - Kaskade

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newgabe
SILVER Member since Mar 2005

newgabe

what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
Location: Bali

Total posts: 4030
Posted:GeoThermal. Good stuff. Needs investment. Recent brilliant demonstration unfortunately halted in Oz when a drilling bit fell down the (seriously deep) shaft and they couldn't get another rig for years to clear it cos that sort of stuff gets booked out years in advance looking for oil... Sabotage? Bad luck? Dang anyway.



 Written by: FireTom



... it will become economical. Whether or not the average Joe will have to starve and freeze immobilized ... I don't know about. I do know is that there are too many (powerful) ppl interested in keeping the system going as it is - which means that "they" will keep it in fashion to 'just' enable "our" survival.

smile





Tom, You've hit on a main point there. It's not just about 'freezing' its about the entire economy of life...quality of life. The price that *we* will pay to keep *their* system going (for *whose* benefit?) is already starting to increase. Not just the price of fuel for our cars and toys, but .. Iraq.. oil wars... civil liberties in every part of the world... the NAC etc. Of course there's money slopping round the world that probably will be invested in new energy sources... but oil is the now for a long time yet, and a hell of a lot money/human enrgy will be going to exploiting/fighting over the bits that are left.. and their people in the near future.



And of course the irony is that war uses up insane amounts of energy for *whose* profit? Bankers, Bushes, Halliburton, Cheney et al and their corrupt slavemasters?

Bloody hell, the last thing Cambodia needs is to be at the heart of the next oil war...



Also...

Do follow Josh's suggestion about watching the end of suburbia film.. it discusses various suggestions like the widespread use of hydrogen cars very effectively.


.....Can't juggle balls but I sure as hell can juggle details....

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Stone
GOLD Member since Jun 2001

Stream Entrant
Location: Melbourne

Total posts: 2830
Posted:I also find it a ridiculous to suggest that a big executive in the petroleum industry just wakes up one morning to discover that "oil scarcity has just snuck up on us".



Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years



 Written by:

The boss of the worlds second-largest oil company forecast that, regardless of government policy initiatives and investment in renewables, the world would need more nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil sands.



Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue, he wrote.



The Blueprints scenario assumes that 90 per cent of CO2 is captured by coal and gas power plants in developed countries by 2050, and at least half of the CO2 emitted by power stations in the developing world. No such plants are in operation today, noted the Shell chief. It will be hard work and there is little time, he said



So you also need to take the [carbon dioxide] out of fossil fuels, especially coal. If you capture the CO2, then you can store it in the ground. At our big refinery in Rotterdam, we capture CO2 and feed it to greenhouses so the tomatoes grow faster. (another source)





Same tune, different drum.


If we as members of the human race practice meditation, we can transcend our fear, despair, and forgetfulness. Meditation is not an escape. It is the courage to look at reality with mindfulness and concentration. Thich Nhat Hanh

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onewheeldave
GOLD Member since Aug 2002

Carpal \'Tunnel
Location: sheffield

Total posts: 3252
Posted:There's actually a very straightforward solution to this problem- cut car use by over 90%: that vastly reduces the demand for oil.

There's been mention of quality of lifesyle and our 'right to commute', which carry the assumption that our current car-based way of life is positive/good.

Think about it- our right to work in a place other than where we live, is rarley a positive- it's a necessary evil: few people enjoy having to tag on an hour each side of an already long working day, just to get from home to their workplace.

Working other than where we live is only seen as unavoidable because the widespread use of cars and access to fuel has made it possible.

If our culture had developed without widespread car use, people simply would not work other than where they live- and they would not miss it one iota.

This current focus on replacing petrol cars with electric cars/hydrogen cars is a missed opportunity- it perpetuates the misery of a car-based culture, plus, it probably won't work cos electricity doesn't just appear from nowhere, it's often made from oil.

While it's true that our current towns/cities cannot bear total local production/employment, that, again,is cos they are 100% car-based. Remove the cars and the infrastructure for local based production/employment is made possible.

Don't be thinking of an instantaneous switch to 100% non-car-based: think of a graual process (as the oil diminishes) and it starts to seem very feasable.

There is no big problem here- the only problem is if we insist on clinging onto a way of life which, in reality, is really not worth clinging on to.


"You can't outrun Death forever.
But you can make the Bastard work for it."

--MAJOR KORGO KORGAR,
"Last of The Lancers"
AFC 32


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The Tea Fairy
SILVER Member since Jul 2004

The Tea Fairy

old hand
Location: Behind you...

Total posts: 853
Posted:ditto clap

Makes a lot of sense to me. I think this would perhaps help towards slowing down urban degeneration and combat social deprivation in some areas too?... creating more localised job opportunities, giving people a sense of community back, etc? Or maybe I'm making presumptions...

*goes off to ponder this*


Idolized by Aurinoko

Take me disappearing through the smoke rings of my mind....

Bob Dylan

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:clap

I Luv dis board grouphug

You too Tom! smile


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Stone
GOLD Member since Jun 2001

Stream Entrant
Location: Melbourne

Total posts: 2830
Posted:OWD, there are many straight forward solutions to cure all of our problems. Like reduce poverty by 100%, cut gun ownership by 90%, cut nuclear arsenals by 100% etc. But these things are just not going to happen.

I like your ideal of closer communities, but I think you underestimate our love affair with cars. Positive or negative, its a lifestyle thing. Many people could use public transport or car pool, but most people still prefer to put up with long commutes.

People would probably prefer to work where they lived. But our culture has developed with the widespread use of individual transportation. Before cars people used horses. As oil based fuels disappear people will find alternatives, be they electric, solar, nuclear or whatever.

There is a big problem here. However, I agree it is only a problem if we insist on clinging onto a way of life which, in reality, is really not worth clinging on to. There are better lifestyles out there, but how are you going to change peoples perceived rights to personal individual transportation? Few people are going to willing give up their rights to own and drive their car.

As someone who grew up in a country of vast distances, I've always dreamed about teleporting or using some form of telepathy as a way to get from A to B.

Cheers smile


If we as members of the human race practice meditation, we can transcend our fear, despair, and forgetfulness. Meditation is not an escape. It is the courage to look at reality with mindfulness and concentration. Thich Nhat Hanh

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FireTom


Stargazer


Total posts: 6650
Posted:I just can't see "running out of oil" to be a big problem after all.

Money is the only problem.

However, these informations are not new, I can't believe that this guy just wakes up to reality now - WE had this information already for some time. And we're at the end of the food chain. So what strategical benefit does Shell have from "coming out" just now?

I for my part will happily get back on that horse (just hope that I'll finally find that home soon, as in "beforehand" other than that I'll be stuck where ever). This laptop computer? Let it go. The only sting would be not to be in obvious touch with you guys anymore.

"Where do the groceries come from?" - fair question, Meg. How about abstaining from exotic fruits? umm In Europe that is. How about abstaining from many things that you got used to in the meantime? (Stone will be able to point out some techniques that can help you with this wink ).

I'm not in charge, but what about Italian Kiwi in Australia? Or New Zealand Kiwis in Europe (when we can grow them in Italy)? Oh, how do they come from Italy to Germany then?

See there is one thing I am sure of - you may call it "purple glasses" or "... haze", at the most I'd call it "pathological optimism" - it's that (as a race) we will find a way to adapt. If not, we will turn over and die. Simple. This is the reality of life.

In both cases, worrying only helps those whose brains work better when worrying. I'm not of this breed and this is why I'm saying: Relax and focus (i.e. meditate).

I could easily come up with alternative technologies, but I'll wait a little longer so you are more desperate for them (and willing to pay any price).


the best smiles are the ones you lead to wink

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onewheeldave
GOLD Member since Aug 2002

Carpal \'Tunnel
Location: sheffield

Total posts: 3252
Posted: Written by: Stone



I like your ideal of closer communities, but I think you underestimate our love affair with cars. Positive or negative, it&#8217;s a lifestyle thing. Many people could use public transport or car pool, but most people still prefer to put up with long commutes.





In the UK, public transport is a bit crap- made worse by the fact that the roads are clogged with way too many vehicles (mainly cars). In conjunction with the fact that services are not well run (buses turning up late etc), it's no wonder people cling to car use.



However, there's no reason why,in the future, a genuine effort isn't made to improve public transport to the point where it becomes an attractive alternative.



And, if, as I suggested, the benefits of not working away from where you live, are sensibly promoted, then neither cars nor public transport are going to be needed at the levels they currently are.





 Written by: Stone



There is a big problem here. However, I agree it is &#8220;&#8230; only a problem if we insist on clinging onto a way of life which, in reality, is really not worth clinging on to.&#8221; There are better lifestyles out there, but how are you going to change peoples perceived rights to personal individual transportation? Few people are going to willing give up their rights to own and drive their car.









I'm not going to be changing peoples perceived anythings. All I'm doing is pointing out that this need not be a big problem- that there's only a problem if people cling to the current massive over relience on cars.



How valuable is the 'right' to own a car, when people start to look at the situation more realistically and start to see that the negatives of car ownership (at current levels) far outweigh the positives?



That the vast majority of benefits of this level of car ownership, exist only because, for the last century, our society has evolved to fit around car ownership (for example the fact that 1-2 hour commutes to work are seen as normal and necessary).



Sort that out and,the benefits drop away.



30 years ago, smoking was common on buses, in pubs and even in schools (teachers smoking in the classroom).



Now we look at those times and see only insanity.



Similarly, the car situation in the UK is totally insane- people just can't see it cos they've grown up with it and just regard it as normal.



There's no reason why it couldn't happen that more and more people do start to see that current ownership levels are insane- start to marval at the fact that, during rush hour in sheffield, it can take 1/2 hour to cover 600 yards in their car- that, during rush hour, it's faster to walk! realise the waste of having a 1-2 hour commute tagged on either end of an 8 hour working day.



And then, it starts to look more obvious that, rather than trying to replace petrol cars with electric/hydrogen/hybrid cars and thus continue the madness, that, instead, a bit of effort altering the social infrastructure can free us from the misery of enslavement to cars.



It's totally feasable that sufficient people may start to see the ridiculousness of current levels of car ownership.


"You can't outrun Death forever.
But you can make the Bastard work for it."

--MAJOR KORGO KORGAR,
"Last of The Lancers"
AFC 32


Educate your self in the Hazards of Fire Breathing STAY SAFE!

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Stone
GOLD Member since Jun 2001

Stream Entrant
Location: Melbourne

Total posts: 2830
Posted:Fire Tom, the guy from Shell seems to be using scare tactics in an attempt to get us to believe that any increase in Co2 emissions for the conversion of oil shale or coal to fuel, is acceptable. Incidentally, the coal to petroleum process was invented in Germany in the 1920s. The technology was used effectively during WW II, and there are vast reserves of coal, natural gas and oil shale.



I dont know if I can help on the distribution of exotic fruit. But as far as Italian Kiwi fruit to Australia or Italian Kiwis to Germany goes, Id say how about exporting Chinese gooseberrys (Actinidia deliciosa) to New Zealand wink



Dave, I think you are missing an important point. People arent clinging to cars. Insane as it may seem, we love individual transportation, and we love our cars! Check out Top Gear.



People realize the current ownership of cars is ridiculousness, but no one is prepared to give up their right to individual car transportation. You are going to have to suggest something more than point out the obvious, if you expect a paradigm shift on car ownership.


If we as members of the human race practice meditation, we can transcend our fear, despair, and forgetfulness. Meditation is not an escape. It is the courage to look at reality with mindfulness and concentration. Thich Nhat Hanh

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Mynci
BRONZE Member since Apr 2005

Mynci

Macaque of all trades
Location: wombling free...

Total posts: 8737
Posted:abseming from exotic fruits ubblol

try absteming from -

Fish, prawns, wearing clothes, watching TV using PC's MP3 players, buying your weekly shopping and pretty much everything commercial in the UK.



Nearly all our clothes are imported and where they are not the fabrics are, most wool in the UK comes from new zealand. I work for a shipping company and i can tell you nearly everything on the high street is imported from somewhere else even "made in UK" means raw materials are shipped in then made here about the only thing we don't import is bread and some meats. and guess how much our compay spends on fuel oil per year....

$28,000,000,000 approx and we are not the biggest by any means but in the top 10. each container ship uses approximately 100 barrels of fuel oil PER DAY and takes approximately 4 weeks to reach the UK from Japan and 6 weeks from Oceania 2 weeks from the US. and there are a LOT of ships. they have a top speed of about 4 knots and are being asked to go slower to save wasting fuel...



The fuels used by domestic cars is a tiny drop compared to the industrial uses just to put your shopping on the shelves, that fair trade stuff you buy causes as much damage to the environment as driving to buy it. frown the amount of cars is an issue. but the worst and most common use of oil is walking to get your shopping. the UK is a mass importer and it's that simple if oil runs out our economy and livlihoods will fail we won;t be able to afford cars let alone the fuel because the replacement tyres and batteries all come from overseas.


A couple of balls short of a full cascade... or maybe a few cards short of a deck... we'll see how this all fans out.

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newgabe
SILVER Member since Mar 2005

newgabe

what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
Location: Bali

Total posts: 4030
Posted:Well said Mynci. It is like that here too. Even 'local' ie Aussie grown stuff can travel a few 1000's kms to land on a plate.

.....Can't juggle balls but I sure as hell can juggle details....

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:thats it - I guess thats where I was coming from, all these effects will be compounded and the costs will be passed up the chain, and as the end of the line, consumers will feel the brunt. While I agree that the few rich require poor masses to do their work, they certainly dont need them living the relatively luxurious life most people in the developed world are living now.

I dont think its such a bad thing - our evil ways had to catch up (the energy consumption vs output issue is never going to go away) eventually, and we've been living on borrowed time. If I had to however, I think I could carve a set swinging clubs out of wood by hand - so I got all the fun I need smile screw your plasma TV LOL wink


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solar_bear
SILVER Member since Feb 2006

solar_bear

journeyman
Location: Kent, UK

Total posts: 78
Posted:As usual, the one big problem behind all environmental issues is, quite simply, overpopulation. There are just too many people on the planet to support the luxury lifestyle to which we all aspire and which we have come to view as our right.



Don't forget: Oil hasn't just brought us light, heat and independent, personal transport - it has provided us with food, by being an ingredient of fertilisers and animal feed (and providing power to the machinery that produces it).



When (not if) the oil runs out, the price of petrol will be the least of our worries.



I don't know if anyone else has seen Rob Newman's History Of Oil, but at the end he makes the point that, by 2050, there will be 7.5 billion people on the planet. The one study that has looked at how they will be fed, has come up with a figure of 2,800 square feet of land required to feed each person. This is possible, but it will require everyone to adhere to a strict vegan diet and for all organic material to be composted - including post mortem cadavers.



Soylent Green, anyone?

EDITED_BY: solar_bear (1203116620)


It may stop, but it never ends.

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Stone
GOLD Member since Jun 2001

Stream Entrant
Location: Melbourne

Total posts: 2830
Posted:Yikes, its already started in suburbia.





Drivers steal petrol worth millions



"DESPERATE drivers are roaring off without paying for petrol in a crime surge costing service stations up to $300,000 a week.



Record pump prices are being blamed for the rise of mum and dad petrol thieves.



Station operators say petrol prices of up to $1.50 a litre are putting a huge strain on motorists, leading more and more families to speed off after filling up their tanks.



"When it first hit the $1.40 a litre mark, we saw mums driving off with the kids in the car without paying," Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce spokesman Terry Conroy said. "

EDITED_BY: Stone (1203130598)


If we as members of the human race practice meditation, we can transcend our fear, despair, and forgetfulness. Meditation is not an escape. It is the courage to look at reality with mindfulness and concentration. Thich Nhat Hanh

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FireTom


Stargazer


Total posts: 6650
Posted:"Desperate drivers" ubblol

 Written by: Herald Sun

"We've had BMWs, new Fords and Holdens $40,000-plus cars coming in with false plates," the manager said.

"One BMW belonging to a lady in her 50s has been in twice and she has driven off without paying.



But you're definitely right - not oil is the problem (or money) overpopulation is. If we would we able to sustain ourselves from the surrounding land, we could easily face it.

At the same time there are a lot of concepts in the drawers to shift from oil to renewable energies - also in big scale transportation. It'll be a huge shift, very interesting to observe.

Looking forward to it.


the best smiles are the ones you lead to wink

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Pyrolific
BRONZE Member since Jan 2001

Returning to a unique state of Equilibrium
Location: Adelaide, South Australia

Total posts: 3289
Posted:Hey Tom, have you heard the ancient Chinese curse that goes: "May you live in interesting times"? wink

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FireTom


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Total posts: 6650
Posted:ubblol I incorporated it wink

*ponders which of the times (since and before the dawn of man) had been dead boring, lacks an answer, bows to Chinese wisdom*


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GeoffonTour04
SILVER Member since Nov 2005

enthusiast
Location: Oxford

Total posts: 360
Posted:As has been correctly pointed out, petrol prices will be the least of our worries if oil prices go up considerably. Almost everything requires oil in some way, either for transportation, manufacture, or as a construction material (plastics).

If we took every car in the world off the road tomorrow, we would still be consuming unbelievable amounts of the stuff, and would effectively would be devolving society as a whole. Oil as an energy source has allowed for huge amounts of growth since we started using it, and there is no credible alternative at the moment.
Biofuels in their current form require vast amounts of arable land and water, both of which are in very short supply in a lot of places, and push the price of food up which hits poorer people.

Renewable (electric) energy and nuclear can take up some of the slack, but I don't believe they can ever generate the kind of energy we need to keep the world running as it is.

Conspiracy theorys aside (it will benifit shell in the short term to have oil prices increase etc), *if* peak oil hits us before we find a credible alternative, we're in very big trouble. Every part of life in the developed world is reliant on oil, and the price of all of them will increase at the same time putting huge strains on the economy in general.

I don't really like to speculate when it's going to happen, but it is going to happen at some point unless we can replace oil first. The only convincing replacement I've heard of is genetically engineered algae - it eats large amounts of co2, grows very very fast with little effort, and doesn't take up arable land. I don't think we are going to be ready to switch to an electrically powered society for a long while as there are just too many combustion engines on the planet & the cost would be huge even spread over a few decades.

More info on peak oil - http://www.energybulletin.net - take some of the stuff on there with a pinch of salt but there's a lot of good info.


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newgabe
SILVER Member since Mar 2005

newgabe

what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
Location: Bali

Total posts: 4030
Posted: Written by: GeoffonTour04


*if* peak oil hits us before we find a credible alternative, we're in very big trouble.



It has. We are. We are like the proverbial frog in the slowly coming to the boil water... except there's not really anywhere to jump. Mars, anyone?


.....Can't juggle balls but I sure as hell can juggle details....

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Sambo_Flux
GOLD Member since Jun 2006

Sambo_Flux

Introverted
Location: Norf London

Total posts: 833
Posted:Good post Geoff. I'm always checking Energy bulletin, it's often very informative.

On a related note, the Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to open today. This is going to land a hefty blow to the already weak dollar, as it's essentially a device to let Iran sell it's oil in Euros and other currencies, rather than Dollars. It's even been postulated that it's the real reason behind the US aggressive stance towards Iran. There are already plenty of conspiracy theories around this, but the fact that it runs via an internet peer to peer system, coupled with the fact that it was scheduled to open a few weeks back but 4 of the largest undersea net cables in the area were mysteriously cut the same week, resulting in a 20% (or, depending on who you listen to, total) internet blackout in Iran and preventing it from opening on schedule, makes me think something fishy is definitely going on... umm


My Mind is a Ship
Emotions become the Waves
Soul is the Ocean

If a quizz is quizzical, what is a test?

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FireTom


Stargazer


Total posts: 6650
Posted:Dunno, maybe it's that I'm infected with this pathological optimism, but you ever heard of "recycling"?

There's so much plastic waste out there... Indians got it carefully stored on every roadside for the day someone opens up a recycling plant somewhere and that stuff becomes valuable. Plastic can be recycled...

I'm just certain that - long before our culture fades due to oil shortages - we will successfully adapt (or kill each other over that stuff).

If we (as a race) prove to be incapable of adapting to self-made troubles, than I reckon it's just to bow out and give way to ants and cockroaches...


the best smiles are the ones you lead to wink

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newgabe
SILVER Member since Mar 2005

newgabe

what goes around comes around. unless you're into stalls.
Location: Bali

Total posts: 4030
Posted:*Conspiracy theories* is such an interesting phrase. It makes it sound like *conspiracy* is the domain of paranoid nutters seeing unreal connections in the ether.



Whereas the actual level of conspiracy.. cooperation...planning...call it what you will.. between the banks, military, governments (particularly US these days) media, neocon think tanks, espionage agencies, stockmarkets, oil and other companies etcetc is simply enormous.



Establishing the details and mapping the connections between people, events and motivations is not a *conspiracy theory* It is more like *conspiracy mapping* or *conspiracy investigation*

If you have a few spare hours watch this long and detailed lecture which requires concentration.



As a taster try this one by an architect about controlled demolition in a very relevant context. or more

Or try reading The Yamoto Dynasty; a history of the Japanese Royal Family (and their connections with JP Morgans) for an historical eyeopener about the last time this all happened.... the 'need' for war I mean...



Calculate how much of our world oil reserves have been used up in wars and making materials for war in the last 50 years. Then cry.


.....Can't juggle balls but I sure as hell can juggle details....

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GeoffonTour04
SILVER Member since Nov 2005

enthusiast
Location: Oxford

Total posts: 360
Posted: Written by: Sambo_Flux


Good post Geoff. I'm always checking Energy bulletin, it's often very informative.

On a related note, the Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to open today. This is going to land a hefty blow to the already weak dollar, as it's essentially a device to let Iran sell it's oil in Euros and other currencies, rather than Dollars. It's even been postulated that it's the real reason behind the US aggressive stance towards Iran. There are already plenty of conspiracy theories around this, but the fact that it runs via an internet peer to peer system, coupled with the fact that it was scheduled to open a few weeks back but 4 of the largest undersea net cables in the area were mysteriously cut the same week, resulting in a 20% (or, depending on who you listen to, total) internet blackout in Iran and preventing it from opening on schedule, makes me think something fishy is definitely going on... umm



The iranian oil bourse article with the info on how the US taxes the world through oil trade* is what got me interested in all this, it's the most logical reason I can see from the US govt. perspective for going to war with Iraq, and their constant build up of fear & distrust of Iran in the media.
If I was really paranoid I'd suggest the recent credit crunch was a convenient way of making hundreds of billions of dollars disappear as a preemptive measure.

*In brief, all oil must is traded in dollars so all countries wishing to buy it must have huge dollar reserves, which by the time they're used have depreceated due to inflation hence the 'tax'. If oil was made available in another currency (as saddam was planning to, and iran has just started) then many countries may sell their dollars & buy into a different currency, causing hyperinflation in the US.


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