• All Purchases made this month instantly go into the draw to win a USD $ 100.00 credit to your HoP account.
 

Forums > Social Chat > A Good Thing and two goats

Login/Join to Participate
Page: 12
joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:Those of you who would appreciate this question have probably heard it already, but here it is again anyway:

You're through to the final round of a gameshow, and the gameshow host has shown you three doors. Behind one of these doors is the grand prize - a Very Good Thing. Like a magic carpet. Behind the other two doors lurk goats, which for the sake of this argument are Not Good Things.

So, you choose your door, but before you open it the host stops you, and opens one of the other doors to show you a goat.

Should you change doors?


(Just to restate the question unnecessarily: at this point you are now standing in front of an unopened door. There is one other door that hasn't been opened. Should you change to the other unopened door, or stick with your first choice, or does it even matter?)

First correct answer that includes a rationale wins a small prize. Like a picture of a fish.


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete Topic

Captain Hazzard
BRONZE Member since Jan 2003

Captain Hazzard

Ninja (shhhh, don't tell)
Location: Truro, UK

Total posts: 420
Posted:i'd stick with the first choice, coz i reckon the host knows that behind it is the good prize, and he wants to make you change your mind.

am i wrong?


I only wanted to be 16... and free

Delete

polythene


veteran
Location: London/ Surrey

Total posts: 1359
Posted:Since he's shown me one goat, I now know that my door has a 50%/ one in two chance of being the good prize rather than the one in three it was before. That would cheer me up. I'd stick with my door. Besides, I like goats.

The optimist claims that we are living in the best of all possible worlds.
The pessimist fears this is true.

Always make time to play in the snow.

Delete

caz86


Twister Fire Starter ridin on a tratter
Location: Bristol/Exeter UK

Total posts: 156
Posted:Nah u change. I'm only saying this because the two other people who have answered this post have said stick. Therefore if I said stick then I wouldn't get the prize anyway. But if I say change then at least I have a chance!!! I want that prize!!!!!

Caz

Delete

telic


I don't want a title.


Total posts: 940
Posted:I know the puzzle already, so I won't name it or give away the answer. Have fun, peoples! (Okay, maybe I'll poke in and answer it in a day or two if no one has by then.)

I first heard this one about two years ago. I was sitting in the waiting room at my doctor's office, and my cell phone rang. It was my father, who had just heard the problem and wanted my help in figuring it out. I think he may have discovered it through Car Talk. (Click and Clack are the best!)


E pluribus unum, baby.

Delete

polythene


veteran
Location: London/ Surrey

Total posts: 1359
Posted:Wait, I know! I'd shout 'free carrots!' and the pick the door that didn't bleat.

The optimist claims that we are living in the best of all possible worlds.
The pessimist fears this is true.

Always make time to play in the snow.

Delete

Narr


Narr

(*) (*) .. for the gnor ;)
Location: sitting on the step

Total posts: 2568
Posted:huummm i think i'd stick with it, either way i get something cool,

magic carpet good

goat good - they make great kebabs! hey dont knock it till you try it!!


she who sees from up high smiles

Patrick badger king: *they better hope there's never a jihad on stupidity*

Delete

Kaji


Kaji

Quantum Theorist
Location: Vansterdam

Total posts: 564
Posted:there is no good prize. The are all goats arn't they?

In the 60's people took acid to make the world weird, now the world is weird and they take prozac to make it normal again.

Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:Tee hee. "The Confusion Squid has many tentacles," as the old saying goes.

So, for any of you who might be tempted by a goat, let me re-iterate: These are Not Good goats... YOU DON'T WANT THEM. The carpet, on the other hand (or door), is a fine thing.

There is an answer. It is based in math, as opposed to any fore-knowledge that the host might have. He's not trying to trick you, in other words.

Believe it or not, despite there being two doors left, one with a car and one with a goat, the chances are not 50 / 50.

Regyt, feel free to post an answer and rationale, and claim your picture of a fish. In my experience, the answer always provokes more controversy than the question. Happy goating!


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

telic


I don't want a title.


Total posts: 940
Posted:If I post the answer, will you buy me a miniature donkey instead?

E pluribus unum, baby.

Delete

onewheeldave
GOLD Member since Aug 2002

Carpal \'Tunnel
Location: sheffield

Total posts: 3252
Posted:You should choose the other door.

Reason: -

With your original choice there are three possibilities

a you are stood in front of the 'good' door
b you are stood in front of the 'bad' door
c you are stood in front of the other 'bad' door

When the quizmaster opens a door and reveals it as a 'bad' one

if c is the case you will win by moving
if b is the case you will win by moving
if a is the case you will lose by moving

given that you don't know which of a,b,c is the case you should move because it gives you two chances of winning, whereas staying only gives one chance.
-----------

I think I've damaged my brain working that out; it'd better be a truly exceptional fish picture!


"You can't outrun Death forever.
But you can make the Bastard work for it."

--MAJOR KORGO KORGAR,
"Last of The Lancers"
AFC 32


Educate your self in the Hazards of Fire Breathing STAY SAFE!

Delete

Astar


member
Location: Nova Scotia, Canada.

Total posts: 1591
Posted:The core issue here is the potrayal of goats being "bad". There are no bad goats.

Delete

telic


I don't want a title.


Total posts: 940
Posted:Onewheeldave is brilliant as always and absolutely right.

I think of it this way:

There are 3 doors, A, B and C. The probability of the winner being door A (the one you're in front of) is 1/3. The probability of the winner being [door B or door C] is 2/3. If you learn that door C is not the winner, the probability of the winner being [door B or door C] remains 2/3.

The reason being, the fact that you suddenly know more about what's behind the doors doesn't change the statistics involved. This is statistics, not quantum mechanics.

Ergo, if you switch doors, your chances of winning go from 1/3 to 2/3.

[If you test this, it really works out this way, honest. I like to supplement my math through experimentation, y'see.]


E pluribus unum, baby.

Delete

mrFlibble
SILVER Member since Mar 2003

Ghostbuster
Location: York, UK

Total posts: 455
Posted:hmmm that is not at all intuitive.
some experimentation would help to convince i think


Delete

Rouge Dragon
BRONZE Member since Jul 2003

Rouge Dragon

Insert Champagne Here
Location: without class distinction

Total posts: 13215
Posted:i kinda get it and kinda dont.......

i think its either like my unit 1 (victorian education system talk!) maths methods probability....where you reduce the number of somethings......but it always took me ages to undrerstand those questions

or else is it like schrodengers (sp?) cat?


i would have changed ***** to phallus, and claire to petey Petey

Rougie: but that's what I'm doing here
Arnwyn: what letting me adjust myself in your room?..don't you dare quote that on HoP...

Delete

Sir_Sheep


Sir_Sheep

old hand
Location: Chester, UK

Total posts: 725
Posted:Can I have the goats please?

Spoiling Christmas for small children since 2003.

Delete

Ninja_Dave


Ninja_Dave

member
Location: Bristol

Total posts: 58
Posted:wow

Delete

Stebbins
BRONZE Member since Dec 2002

10th degree spoon weilder
Location: Halifax, Canada (currently in ...

Total posts: 171
Posted:quote:Originally posted by joe_sixsteps:
Behind the other two doors lurk goats, which for the sake of this argument are Not Good Things.What????
(franticaly starts deleting photos from his computer)


-Beeaaatch please, I'm the macaroni with the cheese.
-This message will self destruct in 10 seconds.

Delete

caz86


Twister Fire Starter ridin on a tratter
Location: Bristol/Exeter UK

Total posts: 156
Posted:I said change ages ago!! So can I have the picture of a fish! Please!

Caz

Delete

Matthew B-M


Matthew B-M

Lemon-Aware Devilstick-wielding Operative
Location: East London Wilds

Total posts: 605
Posted:OK, since you've got that, another one that I like:

(I didn't see it in time, but yeah, I've seen it before too)

You have four people from, say, al-quaeda (just to make this topical) who are about to be shot. They're told that their lives will be spared if they can
solve the puzzle. They are each given a hat that will be black or white, and buried up to their necks in the desert, facing towards a wall.

B || W B W
> || < < <
1 || 2 3 4

They are looking in the direction of the angle-brackets. The puzzle is that one man must correctly shout out the colour of his own hat. Who shouts out first, and how does he know? They can't see through the wall, so 1 and 2 can only see the wall, 3 can see 2, and 4 can see 3 and 2. If the first person to shout it out gets it wrong, they'll all get shot. They know that there are two black and two white hats.


Luv 'n' Lemons
purity :: clarity :: balance

Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:Is it possible for any of them to KNOW the answer? I'm assuming they can't talk to each other, but my guess would be that number 3 should shout out "Black", as he can see one white hat and no blacks, therefore he has a two in three chance of wearing a black one, whereas number four can see one of each and therefore has a fifty / fifty?

Onewheeldave, congratulations. Making you a fish picture goes into the To Do list, somewhere about five tasks down. Not sure about these Miniature Donkeys though regyt. The problem is, they're not really fish. Oh well, at least they're not goats.

Oh, and Caz, I've written "fish 4 Caz" into my To Do list, but I'm afraid it's right down there at the bottom, and there are a lot of things to do. In fact, what am I doing sitting around here on HOP? I'd better get cracking...

*bustles out of room to put on apron and clean kitchen*

[ 09. November 2003, 00:04: Message edited by: joe_sixsteps ]


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:No, wait wait! I've got it! It is number three who has to answer!

He can see number 2, who is wearing white, and he knows that number 4 can see both number 2 and number 3. Therefore, number 3 can't be wearing the same as number 2... therefore number 3 must be wearing black, and he can SHOUT SHOUT SHOUT it out.

Though I must say that if he can come up with that whilst buried up to his neck in the sand and wearing a big hat, then he's one cool cucumber. I was doing the washing up as I cogitated, which is one sure aid to thinking.


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

onewheeldave
GOLD Member since Aug 2002

Carpal \'Tunnel
Location: sheffield

Total posts: 3252
Posted:Where's my fish picture!?!

"You can't outrun Death forever.
But you can make the Bastard work for it."

--MAJOR KORGO KORGAR,
"Last of The Lancers"
AFC 32


Educate your self in the Hazards of Fire Breathing STAY SAFE!

Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:That's the problem with the youth of today - they always want instant results. My god man, I've got to PAINT the damn thing. Hm... two coats of paint, with time to dry in between, makes about three weeks if I go easy on the linseed oil. So don't expect anything for a while yet mate. And you haven't given me an address to send it to either! Honestly, kids these days... back when I were a lad if we'd had a picture of a fish we'd have eaten it with chips, but it would only'a cost two groats.

Exactly.

Anyway, here's another question. This one's as old as dirt, but I'll ask it anyway:

So, three of you go into a restaurant, and each of you orders the 10 set menu. A tasty meal, and you each hand the waiter your tenner at the end. He takes the thirty pound up to the owner, but the owner knows one of you, and says:

"Hey, that's Jonny (or whatever the name is): he's a good kid. Here, he can have five quid off his meal."

The owner takes five pound coins out of the till, and gives them to the waiter to take back to Jonny. But the waiter thinks, hold on, they may not give me a tip... so he takes two of the pound coins, and shoves them in his pocket, then takes three back to the table.

Jonny, being a good chap, splits the money between his friends, and they each get a pound back.

So: they each paid nine pound, and the waiter got two. Three times nine is twenty seven, plus the two that the waiter kept makes twenty nine. Who has got the extra pound?

Is it:
a) The owner?
b) The waiter?
c) Jonny?
d) One of his two mates?
or
e) None of the above?

You probably all know this one already, and besides I've told it badly.

[ 09. November 2003, 06:11: Message edited by: joe_sixsteps ]


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

oli
SILVER Member since Jul 2003

not with cactus
Location: bristol/ southern eastern devo...

Total posts: 2052
Posted:i think the answer, is e)

there isnt an extra pound,

think about it like this, the total cost is going to be 25 pounds (for the meal) plus 2 pounds tip making 27 pounds.
which is 3 times 9 and they each paid nine pounds so it works.


Me train running low on soul coal
They push+pull tactics are driving me loco
They shouldn't do that no no no

Delete

funkymonky


funkymonky

member
Location: oxford

Total posts: 192
Posted:i've got one.

ok... now.... i still have no idea why the answer is right... but i know that it is, as a wise little italian man once told it too me....

yo're a dirty rotten prisener and you've done something horrible and nasty and you made your mother cry. you're serving a life sentance when you find this room. hanging at the end of the room theres a sign saying "one of the doors leads out, the other to the shower rooms with Big Bubba."

theres 2 doors with a guard standing outside each. now.... one of them ALWAYS LIES..... and the other ALWAYS TELLS THE TRUTH.

by all this time you've spent reading the sign and checking the guards out, you've only got time for 1 question before the other guards find you. what do you ask to find the right door...........


Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:Ah, I recognise this old chestnut. I think the answer is to ask either guard what the other guard would tell you. That way, you know that whatever answer you get will be a lie... so you do the opposite!

So, ask one of the guards "Would the other guard say that this door here, the one you're standing in front of, leads to the way out?" If he says that the other guard WOULD tell you that it leads to the way out, then in the name of love man TAKE THE OTHER DOOR, unless of course the idea of big bubba sends a pleasant little tingle down your spine, in which case... well... think we'll leave it there shall we?

I like all these questions. More more more!


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

oli
SILVER Member since Jul 2003

not with cactus
Location: bristol/ southern eastern devo...

Total posts: 2052
Posted:did i get the one about the restaurant right?

Me train running low on soul coal
They push+pull tactics are driving me loco
They shouldn't do that no no no

Delete

Sir_Sheep


Sir_Sheep

old hand
Location: Chester, UK

Total posts: 725
Posted:Who doesn't want these goats?

Non-Https Image Link


Spoiling Christmas for small children since 2003.

Delete

Rouge Dragon
BRONZE Member since Jul 2003

Rouge Dragon

Insert Champagne Here
Location: without class distinction

Total posts: 13215
Posted:ooh! i get the one with the prisoners! yay!

its like from the movie Labyrinth "would he tell me that this door leads to the castle?...so the other door leads to the castle and this door leads to certain death..."
(then theres a whole lot of talk about how it works, but its too early in the morning for me to remember that set of confusing dialogue!)


i would have changed ***** to phallus, and claire to petey Petey

Rougie: but that's what I'm doing here
Arnwyn: what letting me adjust myself in your room?..don't you dare quote that on HoP...

Delete

joe_sixsteps


joe_sixsteps

mULti-torTOISe
Location: Kent currently, Cornwall soon,...

Total posts: 310
Posted:Aye, Oli, you did get the one about the restaurant right. What's more, you explained the answer really clearly, much better than I would have done.

Sir Sheep, ugh, please get those filthy disgusting weird-eyed... mammals... out of this thread. Don't you know that goats are bad karma for everyone? My guru, Beautiful Ol, told me that the last time he sobered up.


The Confusion Squid has many tentacles

Delete

Page: 12